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Monsoon in Kerala on June 1: IMD

PUNE: The southwest monsoon has advanced and will be in Kerala on June 1, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Saturday.

“Prevailing conditions are favourable for the progress of the monsoon to the country’s mainland, starting with Kerala on June 1,” IMD’s deputy director general (weather central) Medha Khole said.

This year, the monsoon arrived in the Andaman Sea three days later than its May 20 date. “The delay is within the expected limits. The standard deviation time is seven days,” said Khole.

The monsoon moved further northwards on Friday to cover parts of the south and central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. “Conditions are favourable for a further northward advance in the next two to three days,” she added.

“We expect the monsoon to move over Maldives and Comorin area, between south of Tamil Nadu/Kerala and west of Sri Lanka. Similarly, it will move over parts of south and central Bay of Bengal, southeast Arabian Sea and the remaining parts of north Andaman Sea,” said Khole.

There is a strong flow of cross-equatorial winds in the southwest direction at least 3 to 4 km above sea and an increase in moisture conditions. Cloudiness also prevails in south Bay of Bengal region. “All this will aid the monsoon’s further advance,” she said.

On factors that may mar the monsoon’s progress with extended dry spells in between, Khole said that the IMD is not issuing long-term predictions on the monsoon’s behaviour. “We cannot say with any certainty whether there will be such dry spells,” she added.

The IMD’s first of the two-stage forecast for the 2012 season has forecast 99% of normal rainfall for June to September season. “We will release the second forecast in June that will also give the spatial distribution of rains over the four homogenous regions of the country,” she added.

The weather bureau has not forecast any immediate respite from the heat wave conditions in parts of central, eastern and northern India. “We expect the heat wave to remain for the next three to four days,” said Khole.

Central parts of India, including Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Jharkhand continue to reel under severe heat wave conditions with the temperatures nearly 45 degrees Celsius. A similar condition also prevails in the northwest India, including Rajasthan.

“These conditions were more pronounced in the last two weeks because of a reduction in the pre-monsoon thunder shower activity, less cloudiness and lesser humidity. We expect no respite from these conditions for the next three to four days,” she added.

The monsoon’s progress

The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala around June 1 and advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around July 15 before moving to adjoining parts of Pakistan.

After hitting Kerala, the monsoon covers Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, Goa and parts of south Maharashtra in the first week of June before arriving in Pune on June 7. It covers Mumbai and rest of Maharashtra by June 10 before progressing to neighbouring Gujarat.

Last year, the monsoon arrived over the Andaman Sea on May 25 and it moved over Kerala on May 28, said IMD officials. After progressing to Karnataka, Goa and parts of south Maharashtra by June 5, the monsoon arrived over Pune on June 6 and Nashik in north Maharashtra on June 7, they said. The monsoon’s advance was good up to north Maharashtra but it stagnated for 10-odd days before moving over Gujarat and yet another dry spell occurred thereafter, Khole said. It moved over Surat on June 22 and further to Delhi and Punjab in June last week and over Rajasthan on July 8.

Short URL: http://www.cckerala.com/?p=10803

Posted by on May 27 2012. Filed under Kerala News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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