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Monsoon may reach Kerala by June 1: IMD

PUNE: The India Meteorological Department(IMD) has said that though the monsoon’s arrival in Andaman will be slightly delayed than usual, it is expected to reach Kerala on time that is around June 1.

Speaking to TOI on Tuesday, P C S Rao, director (weather central), IMD, said, “The monitoring of monsoon at 14 selected stations in Kerala started from May 10. The observations are being recorded to ascertain the expected time of arrival of monsoon in Bay of Bengal and Kerala.”

Rao said there are a few selected weather parameters that are used to declare the monsoon’s arrival in these regions. The parameters include rainfall of over 2.5 mm for at least two consecutive days, presence of strong westerly winds up to a stipulated value and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR).

He said that as per the normal timetable, the monsoon is expected to arrive in Bay of Bengal around mid of May. “It reaches Kerala by May-end. The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and represents the beginning of the rainy season. It reaches Maharashtra around a week after its arrival in Kerala.”

The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005 using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days. The southwest monsoon normally advances over Andaman sea around May 20 with a standard deviation of about a week.

“The inter-tropical convergence zone is showing signs of organisation and the cross equatorial monsoon flow is expected to appear over Andaman sea within the next few days resulting in increased rainfall activity over the area. The monsoon is likely to advance over Andaman sea slightly later than its normal date but well within one standard deviation,” said a statement issued by IMD on Tuesday.

The statement added that for predicting the onset of 2012 monsoon over Kerala, the IMD has used a model based on principal component regression technique. This model uses six weather parameters. “The model suggests that the date of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on June 1 with a model error of ± 4 days,” the statement added.

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Posted by on May 16 2012. Filed under Kerala News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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